Are you interested in the MH370 case? What are the scenarios, and what is their probability? What can be done to avoid a similar case in the future? Which lessons can the aviation community learn from it?<\/p>\n
I invite you to join me at the Malaysian 370 Webinar on 27 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC. It is free, but the number of participants is limited. Registration details are given below.<\/p>\n
When the Malaysian 370 flight disappeared on 8 March 2014 I was as shocked as anyone else, but unlike anyone else, I had a professional commitment, I was teaching air navigation at the University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. My students expected me to explain this accident, as I usually do, but this case defied logic and technical common sense. I am passionate about aviation. My background is in aerospace engineering, with a specialization in avionics and navigation systems. I have been teaching air navigation systems since 1992, and in 2009 I founded the Air Navigation program of studies.<\/p>\n
I started to look at all the facts and case details, and together with my friends Prof. Cristian Constantinescu and Istvan Barna Jakab (a former student), we tried to find clues to solve this mystery. As early as 20 March 2014 I published an article in Romanian on aviatia.ro portal, and I replied to questions in a national newspaper on 23 March 2014. Re-reading these statements after 10 years is reassuring because, in hindsight, I would not have to change anything in that very early analysis. So we started on the right foot, assuming the accident as hijacking after excluding one by one all other possible explanations that were circulated, like fire, technical problems, downing the aircraft by a missile, etc. Also, I concluded that „as improbable as it may seem, the facts indicate a flight heading to the Southern Indian Ocean”.<\/p>\n
In the following months, using only radio signals as recorded by INMARSAT, we calculated the most probable trajectory of the aircraft. On 30 August 2014, I sent to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) our results, which indicated a place 700 NM away from the current search area, south of the Broken Ridge.<\/p>\n
On 18 September 2014, we presented these calculations in a plenary paper at the INCAS Aerospatial Scientific Conference, and they were published in the proceedings.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/inginerie.aero\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/CaptureAerospatial2014.jpg\")
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In October we could confront our results with the results of the INMARSAT team, Chris Ashton, Alan Shuster Bruce, Gary Colledge, and Mark Dickinson. Their outstanding paper was published online in the Journal of Navigation on 7 October 2014, and ATSB suddenly changed its search area, centering it on the Ashton et all results. Our results were close to theirs, and still a couple of hundred nautical miles further to South-West. We redid our calculations many times, trying to understand why our results did not match theirs. In the end, we gave up doubting our results and published them in the same journal in July 2015 (online) and in 2016 in print. We got the Richey Medal for the best scientific paper of the year 2016 in the Journal of Navigation, Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/inginerie.aero\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/CaptureRIN.jpg\")
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In 2015, pieces of debris found on various Indian Ocean shores confirmed two major assumptions of our hypothesis: the flight ended by crashing into the sea, and the place of the crash was in the Indian Ocean. Since then, there have been attempts to backtrack the place of the crash from the debris drift on the surface of the ocean, and also a relatively new theory of weak radio signals. We analyzed both and concluded them as not being useful.<\/p>\n
Since 10 years is a significant time frame, I invite those who are interested to connect to our work on Malaysian 370, in one of the three following ways:<\/p>\n
10 Years After – Malaysian 370 Webinar<\/strong><\/p>\n 27 March 2024 – 12:00 UTC \u2013 Speaker: Octavian Thor Pleter<\/p>\n Subjects: What are the MH370 scenarios, and what is their probability? What can be done to avoid a similar case in the future? Which lessons can the aviation community learn from it?<\/p>\n Language: English<\/p>\n Online registration, Webex meeting with 45 minutes interactive presentation, and up to 1 hour and 30 minutes Q&A and discussions.<\/p>\n The webinar is open to the aviation community, and also to non-professional audience, journalists, and the general public. All technical terms will be explained.<\/p>\n Registration is free and requires just an e-mail message to the address MH370questions@gmail.com<\/strong> containing your name and organization, and at least one question about the Malaysian 370 case that you might have. All questions will be given proper consideration.<\/p>\n The number of participants is limited, so please, do not delay registering. Applications are expected between 5 and 25 March 2024. Registration confirmation will be returned by e-mail starting with 20 March 2024.<\/p>\n Air Navigation Book<\/strong><\/p>\n It will be released in April 2024 by Springer in Aerospace Technology Series:<\/p>\n <Springer Aerospace Technology><\/a><\/p>\n Chapter 11 includes a comprehensive analysis of the Malaysian 370 case.<\/p>\n EASN Research Webinar: 10 Years of Research into the Malaysian 370 Lost Flight<\/strong><\/p>\n >> Speaker: Octavian Thor Pleter<\/p>\n >> Co-authors: Cristian Emil Constantinescu, Barna Istvan Jakab<\/p>\n 17 May 2024 – 14:00 CET<\/p>\n Language: English<\/p>\n Organized by the European Aeronautics Sciences Network (EASN), the webinar will take one hour, presentation plus discussions, with eventual Q&A follow-up by e-mail.<\/p>\n <EASN webinars><\/a><\/p>\n Participants need to be EASN members, scientific researchers, aeronautical engineers, aerospace engineering students. The individual membership fee is \u20ac30 annually.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”rgba(147,175,193,0.39)” disabled_on=”on|on|off” _builder_version=”4.16″ hide_on_mobile=”on” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_comments show_count=”off” _builder_version=”4.16″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” button_letter_spacing_hover=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” button_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”on” button_letter_spacing__hover=”0″ button_one_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”off” button_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off”][\/et_pb_comments][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_blog fullwidth=”off” include_categories=”11″ show_thumbnail=”off” show_categories=”off” _builder_version=”4.16″ border_width_all=”1px” border_color_all=”#e5e5e5″ border_style_all=”solid” border_width_all_fullwidth=”1px” border_color_all_fullwidth=”#e5e5e5″ border_style_all_fullwidth=”solid” box_shadow_style=”preset1″ box_shadow_vertical=”1px” box_shadow_blur=”5px” box_shadow_color=”rgba(0,0,0,.1)” use_border_color=”on” border_color=”#e5e5e5″ border_style=”solid” use_dropshadow=”on” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_blog][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Late Edit: We started a new section of this site dedicated to this subject: <MH370> Are you interested in the MH370 case? What are the scenarios, and what is their probability? What can be done to avoid a similar case in the future? Which lessons can the aviation community learn from it? I invite you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":40033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":" [et_pb_section bb_built=\"1\" fullwidth=\"off\" specialty=\"on\"][et_pb_column type=\"3_4\" specialty_columns=\"3\"][et_pb_row_inner admin_label=\"Row\"][et_pb_column_inner type=\"4_4\" saved_specialty_column_type=\"3_4\"][et_pb_text background_layout=\"light\" text_orientation=\"justified\" use_border_color=\"off\" border_color=\"#ffffff\" border_style=\"solid\" _builder_version=\"3.0.92\"]<\/p> V\u0103 intereseaz\u0103 cazul MH370? Care sunt scenariile MH370 \u0219i care sunt probabilit\u0103\u021bile lor? Ce putem face pentru evitarea pe viitor a unor cazuri similare? Ce lec\u021bii poate \u00eenv\u0103\u021ba comunitatea avia\u021biei din acest caz?<\/p> V\u0103 invit la un webinar despre Malaysian 370 pe 27 martie 2024 la ora 12:00 UTC. Este gratuit, dar num\u0103rul participan\u021bilor este limitat. Detalii pentru \u00eenscriere g\u0103si\u021bi mai jos.<\/p> C\u00e2nd zborul Malaysian 370 a disp\u0103rut pe data de\u00a0 8 martie 2014 am fost \u0219ocat ca to\u021bi ceilal\u021bi, dar spre deosebire de cei mai mul\u021bi, eu aveam o obliga\u021bie profesional\u0103, predam naviga\u021bie aerian\u0103 la Universitatea Politehnica din Bucure\u0219ti, Facultatea de Inginerie Aerospa\u021bial\u0103. Studen\u021bii mei a\u0219teptau ca eu s\u0103 le explic acest accident, a\u0219a cum fac de obicei, \u00eens\u0103 acest caz sfida logica \u0219i bunul sim\u021b tehnic. Sunt inginer de aeronave cu specializare \u00een avionic\u0103 \u0219i sisteme de naviga\u021bie \u0219i predau sisteme de naviga\u021bie aerian\u0103 din 1992. \u00cen 2009 am fondat programul de studii Air Navigation.<\/p> Am \u00eenceput s\u0103 adun \u0219i s\u0103 analizez toate faptele \u0219i detaliile cazului \u0219i, \u00eempreun\u0103 cu prietenii mei, Prof. Cristian Constantinescu \u0219i Istvan Barna Jakab (un fost student), am \u00eencercat s\u0103 decript\u0103m acest caz misterios. \u00cenc\u0103 din 20 martie 2014 am publicat un articol \u00een limba rom\u00e2n\u0103 pe portalul aviatia.ro \u0219i am r\u0103spuns unor \u00eentreb\u0103ri \u00eentr-un ziar na\u021bional pe 23 martie 2014. Recitind acele r\u00e2nduri dup\u0103 10 ani \u00eemi ofer\u0103 satisfac\u021bia de a nu avea ce corecta retrospectiv din acea analiz\u0103 foarte timpurie. Astfel am pornit cu dreptul, \u00een\u021beleg\u00e2nd c\u0103 accidentul era de fapt un act de piraterie aerian\u0103, dup\u0103 ce exclusesem una c\u00e2te una toate posibilele ipoteze vehiculate, ca incendiu la bord, probleme tehnice, dobor\u00e2rea avionului de o rachet\u0103 etc. De asemenea, am tras concluzia atunci c\u0103 \"oric\u00e2t ar p\u0103rea de improbabil, faptele par s\u0103 indice c\u0103 zborul s-a \u00eendreptat c\u0103tre Sud, \u00een Oceanul Indian \u0219i nu c\u0103tre Nord\".<\/p> \u00cen lunile urm\u0103toare, folosind singurele semnale radio \u00eenregistrate de INMARSAT, am calculat cea mai probabil\u0103 traiectorie a avionului. Pe 31 august 2014 am trimis rezultatele noastre c\u0103tre the Australian Transportation Safety Board (ATSB), acestea indic\u00e2nd un loc la 700 NM distan\u021b\u0103 de zona de c\u0103utare de la acea dat\u0103. Pe 18 septembrie 2014 am prezentat calculele \u00eentr-o prezentare plenar\u0103 la Conferin\u021ba \u0219tii\u021bific\u0103 INCAS Aerospa\u021bial \u0219i ele au fost publicate \u00een proceedings.<\/p> \u00cen octombrie ne-am putut confrunta rezultatele cu cele ale echipei INMARSAT, Chris Ashton, Alan Shuster Bruce, Gary Colledge, \u0219i Mark Dickinson. Lucrearea lor excep\u021bional\u0103 a fost publicat\u0103 online \u00een Journal of Navigation pe 7 octombrie 2014 \u0219i brusc ATSB \u0219i-au schimbat zona de c\u0103utare centr\u00e2nd-o pe rezultatele lui Ashton et all. Rezultatele noastre erau aproape de ale lor \u0219i totu\u0219i vreo dou\u0103 sute de mile mai departe c\u0103tre sud-vest. Noi am ref\u0103cut calculele de multe ori, \u00eencerc\u00e2nd s\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem de ce nu pic\u0103m pe acelea\u0219i rezultate. \u00cen final am cedat concluziei c\u0103 rezultatele noastre erau corecte \u0219i le-am publicat \u00een acela\u0219i jurnal \u00een iulie 2015 (online) \u0219i respectiv \u00een 2016 (tip\u0103rit). Am ob\u021binut medalia Richey pentru cea mai bun\u0103 lucrare \u0219tiin\u021bific\u0103 din 2016 \u00een Journal of Navigation, Cambridge University Press.<\/p> \u00cen 2015 au ap\u0103rut primele buc\u0103\u021bi din epava avionului \u00een diverse locuri pe coastele Oceanului Indian, confirm\u00e2nd dou\u0103 din ipotezele noastre majore: c\u0103 zborul s-a terminat prin pr\u0103bu\u0219ire \u00een ocean \u0219i c\u0103 locul pr\u0103bu\u0219irii este Oceanul Indian. De atunci au existat \u00eencerc\u0103ri de a reconstitui locul pr\u0103bu\u0219irii urm\u0103rind invers buc\u0103\u021bile de epav\u0103 purtate de v\u00e2nt, valuri \u0219i curen\u021bi \u0219i de asemenea o teorie relativ nou\u0103 a semnalelor radio slabe. Le-am analizat pe am\u00e2ndou\u0103 \u0219i le-am g\u0103sit neconcludente.<\/p> Deoarece 10 ani reprezint\u0103 un interval de timp semnificativ, \u00eei invit pe to\u021bi cei interesa\u021bi s\u0103 se conecteze la munca noastr\u0103 despre cazul Malaysian 370 \u00eentr-unul din cele trei moduri:<\/p> 10 Years After - Malaysian 370 Webinar<\/strong><\/p> 27 martie 2024 - 12:00 UTC \u2013 Conferen\u021biar: Octavian Thor Pleter<\/p> Subiecte: Care sunt scenariile MH370 \u0219i care sunt probabilit\u0103\u021bile lor? Ce putem face pentru evitarea pe viitor a unor cazuri similare? Ce lec\u021bii poate \u00eenv\u0103\u021ba comunitatea avia\u021biei din acest caz?<\/p> Limba: Englez\u0103<\/p> \u00cenregistrare online, videoconferin\u021b\u0103 Webex cu 45 de minute de prezentare interactiv\u0103 \u0219i p\u00e2n\u0103 la o or\u0103 \u0219i jum\u0103tate de \u00eentreb\u0103ri, r\u0103spunsuri \u0219i discu\u021bii.<\/p> Webinarul este deschis comunit\u0103\u021bii avia\u021biei dar \u0219i unei audien\u021be generale: jurnali\u0219tilor \u0219i publicului. To\u021bi termenii tehnici vor ffi explica\u021bi.<\/p> \u00cenregistrarea este gratuit\u0103 \u0219i se face trimi\u021b\u00e2nd un mesaj e-mail \u00een limba englez\u0103 la adresa MH370questions@gmail.com<\/strong> con\u021bin\u00e2nd numele dvs, organiza\u021bia \u0219i m\u0103car o \u00eentrebare pe care o ave\u021bi despre cazul Malaysian 370. Se vor lua \u00een considerare toate \u00eentreb\u0103rile.<\/p> Num\u0103rul de participan\u021bi este limitat, a\u0219a c\u0103 v\u0103 rog nu \u00eent\u00e2rzia\u021bi cu \u00eenregistrarea. \u00cenregistr\u0103rile sunt a\u0219teptate \u00een perioada 5-25 martie 2024. Confirm\u0103rile \u00eenregistr\u0103rilor vor fi transmise prin e-mail \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 20 martie 2024.<\/p> \u00a0<\/strong>Cartea Air Navigation<\/strong><\/p> Va fi publicat\u0103 \u00een aprilie 2024 de Springer \u00een Seria Aerospace Technology:<\/p> Capitolul 11 este o analiz\u0103 comprehensiv\u0103 a cazului Malaysian 370.<\/p>![\"\"](\"https:\/\/inginerie.aero\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/CaptureBook.jpg\")
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